Statistical prediction of probability of financial insolvency of industrial enterprises in the conditions of import substitution

I. Krasnobokaya

doi:doi:10.12737/21334

Statistical prediction of probability of financial insolvency of industrial enterprises in the conditions of import substitution

Published в Central Russian Journal of Social Sciences · Volume 11, Issue 4, 2016 · Pages 173–183 · Rubrics: ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

DOI 10.12737/21334

Received: 29.08.2016 Accepted: 29.08.2016 Published: 29.08.2016 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

I. Krasnobokaya

ABSTRACT

The problem of diagnosis and prevention of financial insolvency of the domestic enterprises is one of the central problems in the system of anti-crisis financial management. Taking into account the crisis in the economy and the cyclical increase in the number of bankruptcies, it is of particular relevance in theoretical and applied aspects. The most acute problem is the bankruptcy in the industry, the development of which is an essential factor in the growth of the national economy in the context of import substitution. Every fifth domestic company is on track to bankruptcy. In this situation an important task is recognition of the crisis and prevention of possible failure in the future. With a significant arsenal of assessment methods of probability of bankruptcy used by financial management of industrial enterprises; the choice of methods and models is still the actual problem which could provide an objective assessment of the state of the enterprise and to point out the causes of the crisis. Traditional methods of financial analysis give only an approximate gradation degree of the threat of bankruptcy, without providing information on the amount of errors of wrong diagnosis. In order to resolve these contradictions the article presents the methodical approach to forecasting financial insolvency of enterprises, based on extensive use of statistical tools. Complex use of statistical modeling methods, multivariate statistical analysis of comparative, statistical pattern of recognition the images allow on a scientific theoretical basis to provide a guaranteed accuracy of forecasting results and an objective diagnosis of the financial insolvency and the formation of high-quality information base for management anti-crisis decisions in the real economy.

KEYWORDS

industry import substitution crisis financial insolvency diagnostics statistical modeling and forecasting pattern recognition multivariate analysis

Information References

Authors:

Type:

Article

Pages:

from 173 to 183

Status:

Published

Language:

Russian

Keywords:

industry, import substitution, crisis, financial insolvency, diagnostics, statistical modeling and forecasting, pattern recognition, multivariate analysis

References

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