Risk Assessment and Dose Thresholds at the Plutonium Pnevmosclerosis

S. Osovets; T. V. Azizova; E. Grigor&#039;eva

doi:doi:10.12737/article_5ac61ede369432.74296396

UDC 53 CSCSTI 34.49

Risk Assessment and Dose Thresholds at the Plutonium Pnevmosclerosis

Published в Medical Radiology and radiation safety · Volume 63, Issue 2, 2018 · Pages 33–40 · Rubrics: Radiation epidemiology

DOI 10.12737/article_5ac61ede369432.74296396

Received: 05.04.2018 Accepted: 05.06.2018 Published: 05.06.2018 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

S. Osovets ¹ · T. V. Azizova ² · E. Grigor'eva ³

1 Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozyorsk (Leading Researcher)
Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

2 Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (Deputy Director)
Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

3 Southern Urals Biophysics Institute
Russian Federation

ABSTRACT

Purpose: To assess risks curves, dose thresholds, and their uncertainties for plutonium-induced pneumosclerosis (PPS) among Mayak PA workers based on developed methods of mathematical modeling. Material and methods: PPS risk modeling with further calculation of dose thresholds and their uncertainties was performed using a comparative analysis of estimates of individual absorbed lung doses from incorporated plutonium-239 provided by two Mayak Worker Dosimetry Systems: MWDS-2008 and MWDS-2013. To carry out the calculations, four groups of workers were formed: workers with PPS induced only by plutonium (pure PPS; n = 107); workers with PPS induced by both plutonium and other factors (mixed PPS; n = 46); workers with undefined PPS (n = 153); control workers (comparison group; n = 188). Weibull’s dose distribution model was applied to assess risk curves. Dose distribution parameters were calculated using the least square technique. Dose thresholds were estimated using two basic methods: quantile threshold method and estimation based on dose distribution functions for each group with PPs and the comparison group. Common uncertainties were calculated using two methods: Monte-Carlo method and error propagation. Results: Risk curves were plotted based on Weibull’s models for three groups of workers diagnosed with PPS. Modeling results were statistically significant (R2 = 0.96 – 0.99) with both dosimetry systems used (MWDS-2008 and MWDS-2013). Median absorbed lung alpha-dose (D50) estimated using Weibull’s model varied significantly with the dosimetry system. E.g., in the group with pure PPS D50= 0.79 Gy when MWDS-2008 was used while the corresponding estimate was D50= 2.05 Gy when MWDS-2013 was used, demonstrating more than a two-fold difference between the estimates. Dose thresholds for PPS occurrence and their standard uncertainties were estimated. With MWDS-2013 used, the dose thresholds were D0= 0,63 Gy for the lung and D0= 1.0 Gy for alveolar-interstitial lung tissues, respectively. The mean relative uncertainty of these thresholds was U = 23 %. Quantile dose thresholds were an order of magnitude lower than those above and their standard uncertainty, on the contrary, was 23 % higher: the mean uncertainty of 5 % quantile was U = 60 % while the corresponding value for 1 % quantile was U = 95 %. Conclusions: For the first time dose thresholds and their uncertainties for the formation of PPS with internal alpha irradiation were estimated. The reported results are of considerable interest both for scientific and practical application in radiation safety and medicine.

KEYWORDS

plutonium pneumosclerosis risk dose thresholds Weibull distribution standard uncertainty Mayak PA

Information Text References

Authors:

1. Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozyorsk (Leading Researcher)

Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

2. Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (Deputy Director)

Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

3. Southern Urals Biophysics Institute

Russian Federation

Type:

Article

Pages:

from 33 to 40

Status:

Published

Subject area:

UDC 53
CSCSTI 34.49

Language:

Russian, English

Keywords:

plutonium pneumosclerosis, risk, dose thresholds, Weibull distribution, standard uncertainty, Mayak PA

Text

Плутониевый пневмосклероз (ППС) относится к детерминированным (тканевым) эффектам облучения. Детерминированные эффекты характеризуются клинически выявляемыми поражениями органов и тканей, имеют дозовые пороги, причем тяжесть поражения возрастает с увеличением дозы. Как было показано ранее, ППС развивается при внутреннем альфа-облучении легких от инкорпорированного плутония. Известно, что основным путем поступления альфа-активных аэрозолей плутония в организм человека в процессе профессионально-производственной деятельности являются органы дыхания. При этом величина задержки аэрозолей плутония в организме варьирует и составляет 5~70 %, что обусловлено, в первую очередь, растворимостью и дисперсностью аэрозольных частиц.

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