SIMULATION OF SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FIRE IN A SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The paper analyzes fires in the Russian Federation, including in shopping and entertainment centers. Objects with a mass stay of people are investigated on the example of the shopping entertainment center Passage "Solnechny Rai" in Voronezh. As a result of the analysis carried out on the study of objects with a massive presence of people, in our case, at the alleged object of extinguishing a fire and conducting an ACR, at the time of the fire there were more than 50 people, one way or another in comparison even with night time when there are no people at the object , the object refers to objects with a mass presence of people. Forecasting the development of the fire was carried out for the shopping and entertainment center Passage "Solnechny Rai". Simulation of two scenarios of fire development with the most dangerous zones of fire occurrence has been carried out. According to the first scenario of a fire in the premises of the Perekrestok store located on the ground floor, in the event of a fire in the store, the greatest amount of manpower and resources will be required, since this facility has the highest fire load, storage of a large amount of goods. According to the second scenario, a fire breaks out in a retail space located on the third floor of the building of the “Solnechny Rai” Passage shopping and entertainment center. As a result of a fire, adjacent rooms and higher floors are quickly filled with combustion products, which will lead to the impossible evacuation of people by their own forces. For the considered shopping and entertainment center, recommendations have been developed for organizing rescue operations.

Keywords:
Modeling of scenarios of fire development, shopping and entertainment center, places of mass presence of people, fire safety, analysis of fires, characteristics of the object of protection, organization of rescue operations.
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I. Введение

С 1 января 2019 года в Российской Федерации вступило в силу изменение на порядок учета пожаров и их последствий утвержден Приказ МЧС России от 8.10.2018 года № 431 «О внесении изменений в порядок учета пожаров и их последствий, утвержденный приказом МЧС России от 21.11.2008 года № 714».

Поправка предусматривает учет всех неконтролируемых ситуаций горения, таких как пожары, в том числе тех, которые учитывались до изменения, а также фиксирует 30 дней периода для учета пострадавших и погибших в результате пожара (ранее учитывались только те, кто погиб непосредственно при пожаре).

В 2019 году на территории Российской Федерации было зарегистрировано 471 357 пожаров, в результате которых 8567 человек погибли и 9477 получили ранения, в том числе 111 пожаров, произошедших на объектах и территориях Федеральной администрации, которые самостоятельно зарегистрировали учет пожаров и их последствия, 111 пожаров, на которых погибло 8 человек и 16 человек пострадали.

Министерство по чрезвычайным ситуациям России зарегистрировало 471 246 пожаров, в результате которых 8 559 человек погибли и 9 461 человек пострадали.

В 2019 году было зарегистрировано 1112 944 пожара в Центральном федеральном округе (24,0% от общего числа по России); Приволжском федеральном округе–78 241 единица (16,6%); Сибирском федеральном округе–74 580 единиц (15,8%); Дальневосточном федеральном округе–60 536 единиц (12,8%); 43 904 единицы (9,3%); Уральском федеральном округе–35 338 единиц (7,5%).; В Кавказском федеральном округе-18 648 единиц (4,0%) (рис. 1).

Наибольшее количество пожаров зафиксировано на объектах в открытой местности, в том числе сжигание мусора, сухая растительность-295 998 единиц-62,8% от общего числа пожаров в России (рис. 2).

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