employee from 01.01.2018 until now
Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
The issues of the seasonality of criminal activity are widely covered in foreign scientific literature, but domestic research in this area includes literally several works. At the same time, the results of the assessment of seasonal fluctuations in criminal activity can be used for practical purposes — to predict the level of crime and the distribution of internal affairs forces when countering certain types of crimes. The task of present article sets is the diagnosing seasonal fluctuations in the Russian economic crime using graphical and analytical methods. Using the data of the official statistics of 2003—2020, the authors come to the conclusion that there is a vivid seasonality in the dynamics of registered economic crimes. The main reason for such steady fluctuations, according to the authors, is related to the peculiarities of detecting and solving crimes in the economic sphere.
crime seasonality, criminal statistics, economic crime, crime forecasting, autocorrelation
1. Andresen M. A., Malleson N. Seasonality of crime and its variations in space. Applied Geography, 2013, no. 43, pp. 25—35.
2. Cohen J., Gorr U., Durso S. Assessing the seasonality of crime: extending the cross-section to the classical decomposition of time series. Working paper X. John Heinz III, no. 18. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: Carnegie Mellon University Publ., 2003.
3. Krylova E. A., Efimova N. R. The use of fictitious variables in modeling the number of registered crimes in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). South Siberian Scientific Bulletin, 2019, no. 2 (26), pp. 111—116. (In Russ.)
4. Cohn E. G., Rotton J. Weather, seasonal trends and property crimes in Minneapolis, 1987—1988. Analysis of time series with a variable moderator of routine activity. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 2000, no. 20, pp. 257—272.
5. Mukhopadhyay A., Zhang S., Vorobeychik Yu., Tambe M., Pence K., Speer P. Optimal allocation of police patrol resources using a continuous-time crime model. International Conference on the Theory of Decision-making and Games for Security, Springer, 2016, pp. 139—158.
6. Falk G. J. The influence of the seasons on the crime rate. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 1952, no. 43, pp. 199—213.
7. Linning S. J., Andresen M. A., Brantingham P. J. (2017). Seasonality of crime: the study of time fluctuations of property crimes in cities with different climates. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 2017, no. 61 (16), pp. 1866—1891.
8. Matakovich H. Seasonality of crime in Croatia: the relationship with tourism. Tourism: International Interdisciplinary Journal, 2020, no. 68 (2), pp. 195—206.
9. McDowell D., Loftin K., Pate M. (2012). Seasonal crime cycles and their variability. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2012, no. 28 (3), pp. 389—410.
10. Lauritsen J. L., White N. Seasonal patterns in trends of criminal victimization, volume 245959. U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Program, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2014.
11. Miron J., (1990) Economics of Seasonal Cycles, no. 3522, NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 1990.
12. Van Koppen P. J., Jansen R. W. J. 1999.Time of robbery: differences in the time of the number of commercial robberies. Journal of Crime and Crime Research, 1999, no. 36, pp. 7—29.
13. Rubtsov I. V. Analysis of the dynamics of economic crime in Russia. Bulletin of the Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2017, no. 4, pp. 214—218. (In Russ.)
14. Myachin N. V., Shumilin O. V. Changing the structure of economic crimes in the Russian Federation. Bulletin of Economic Security, 2021, no. 1, pp. 256—261. (In Russ.)
15. Romanov S. R. Structural and dynamic analysis of economic crimes: statistical aspect. Intelligence. Innovations. Investment, 2019, no. 5, pp. 129—135. (In Russ.)
16. Russian Statistical Yearbook. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/210/document/12994 (accessed 15.05.2021). (In Russ.)
17. Ehrlich I. (1996), Crime, punishment and the market of offenses. Journal of Economic Prospects, 1996, no. 10, pp. 43—68.