The methodological approaches to national economic forecasting of industries and markets are considered in this paper. The main attention has been paid to features related to coordination of processes determining by macro- and microeconomic factors. The algorithm of forecasting constructions on the example of ferrous metallurgy has been considered. The main results of the forecasting constructions for short-term and midterm have been presented.
economy, forecasting, industry, metallurgy, production and technological model, inter industry balance.
Составной частью системы народно-хозяйственного прогнозирования является блок прогнозов отраслей и отраслевых комплексов. Данный блок позволяет не только оценить реалистичность макроэкономических построений, но и отражает важнейшие процессы, наблюдаемые в реальном секторе экономики. Особенности анализа отраслевых комплексов определяются целями исследования, характером используемой информации и методическими приемами ее обработки [12, 15–17, 21, 26].
Так как предлагаемые учеными и правительственными структурами решения носят комплексный характер, то и их осуществление должно проходить в рамках единого механизма, определяющего логику прогнозных вариантов экономического развития.
Подходы к анализу и прогнозированию отраслевых комплексов предопределены необходимостью решения следующих задач:
- обоснование приоритетов развития отраслей во взаимосвязи с процессами обновления основных фондов и изменением экономической структуры общества;
- определение требований к качеству и ассортименту продукции со стороны отраслей-потребителей;
- взаимная увязка прогнозных объемов производства и потребления основных видов продукции;
- определение требований к технической реконструкции отраслей со стороны сопряженных отраслей (потребителей и поставщиков ресурсов) исходя из критериев эффективности использования ресурсов.
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