Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
employee
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
The purpose of the work was to identify new long-term cycles of modern world economic dynamics. In the world economic dynamics, long-term - half-century cycles were identified, identified as the cycles of N. Kondratiev, which were formed during the formation of the industrial economy. The transition to a post-industrial economy could change the cyclic nature of economic dynamics. To assess possible changes in the system of long-term cycles of economic dynamics, a spectral analysis of the series of per capita GDP of the leaders of the world economy in terms of labor productivity was performed. The results showed that in the 20th century the economic dynamics of Great Britain and the United States formed powerful cycles with a period of 25-30 years. A spectral analysis of the series of per capita GDP in the world for the period 1962-2019 has been performed. The results obtained indicate that at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries, powerful cycles with a period of 25-30 years were formed in world economic dynamics, significantly exceeding half-century cycles in terms of power. Econometric models with a cyclic (harmonic) component are constructed to estimate the parameters of cycles. At the first stage of research, the model of world per capita GDP was guarded, the optimized period of which was 65. At the second stage, a model was built, the optimized period of which was 25 years. The possibility of the existence of two models indicates that in the economic systems of developed countries, in the world economy, transitional processes are taking place. Both models may reflect the beginning of the formation at the beginning of the second decade of a new technological order, characteristic of the post-industrial economic system. This means the possibility of a systemic global economic crisis in 2022-2023.
Kondratyev cycles, new cycles, technological paradigms, econometric models, forecasts, crises
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