Despite the positive trend to a decrease in the mortality rate from the Tula region remains high compared to middle-russian indicator. The decline in mortality is included in the Concept target demographic policy of the Russian Federation until 2025. It can be achieved by reducing mortality by leading causes of death, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer and injuries. The aim is to study the influence of environmental factors on mortality and the choice of method for predicting mortality. When forecasting the following methods: regression analysis, algebraic model of constructive logic, group method of artificial neural networks. We used and analyzed mortality rates for 1996 - 2012 years, as well as details of the radiation situation, air emissions, soil and water, do not meet state standards. The study found that the greatest impact on mortality have not meet state standards food, the release of pollutants into the atmosphere and content of radionuclides in food. It was found that the method of stepwise regression reveals multifactor linear relationship. However, in the case of the nonlinear dependence of the method little- competent, and require the use of other methods of forecasting, such as neural networks.
mortality prediction, stepwise regression method, radionuclides, cancer.
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