employee
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.
per capita GDP, developed countries, spectral analysis, Kondratieffcycles.
Работа выполнена при поддержке гранта РГНФ № 15-02-00369.
Введение
Цель настоящей работы — идентификация циклов Кондратьева в экономике развитых стран, оценка их мощности XIX и XX в. и получение, таким образом, основы для периодизации зарождения и распространения современных технологических укладов в экономике наиболее развитых стран.
Н. Кондратьев в 1920-е гг. обратил внимание на то, что в долгосрочной динамике некоторых экономических индикаторов наблюдается цикличность с периодом порядка 50 лет. В дальнейшем было выполнено большое количество исследований долгосрочных колебаний с периодом порядка 50 лет. Экономисты и статистики пытались вывить циклы Кондратьева в динамике экономических индикаторов отдельных стран и мировой экономики. Во многих работах с использованием методов спектрального анализа удавалось выделить циклы Кондратьева. Примерами могут служить работы: Gordon, 1978; Mandel, 1980; Van Ewijk, 1982; Cleary, Hobbs, 1983; Berry, 1991. При этом ряд работ не подтвердил наличие циклов Кондратьева в мировой экономической динамике. Примерами могут служить следующие работы: Van der Zwan, 1980; Chase-Dunn, Grimes, 1995.
1. Sarunas, Markus. Kondratieff, N. and Schumpeter, Joseph A. Long-waves theory Analysis of long-cycles theory. Universities in Oslo, 2012.
2. Markku Wilenius. Leadership in the sixth wave — excursions into the new paradigm of the Kondratieff cycle 2010–2050. European Journal of Futures Research. March 2014, 2:36. Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40309-014-0036-7
3. Tanning, T., Saat, M. and Tanning, L. (2013). Kondratiev wave: overview of world economic cycles. Global Business and Economics Research Journal, 2013. Vol 2(2), pp. 1–11. Available at: www.journal.globejournal.org/index.../article/...
4. Smirnov, A.S. What reality is behind the «Kondratiev wave»? These long cycles. Kondrat´evskie volny [Kondratieff Waves]. 2014. I. 3, pр. 93–169. (in Russian)
5. Makasheva, N.A. The problem of integrating theories of economic cycles and balance (the second half of the 1920s – 1930s) and a draft of the theory of economic dynamics Kondratiev. Voprosy jekonomiki [Economic issues]. 2014, I. 1, pр. 22–39. (in Russian)
6. Andrey, V. Korotayev and Leonid, E. Grinin. Kondratieff Waves: Dimensions and Prospects 2012. Available at: http://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/kw_1/023-064.pdf
7. Natashkina, E.A. Basovskiy, L.E. Kondratiev waves and technological ways. Zhurnal jekonomicheskoj teorii [Magazine of the economic theory]. 2012, I. 3, pр. 169–173. (in Russian).
8. Basovskiy, L. The Kondratieff Cycles and Technological Modes in the Economies of Russia and Developed Countries. Ekonomika. V. 2, I. 4, рp. 4–10. DOI: 10.12737/5446. (in Russian)
9. Maddison, A. Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. Available at: http//www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls (accessed 25 May 2015).
10. Basovskiy, L.E., Basovskaya, E.N. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya [Economic theory]. Moscow, Infra-M Publ., 2010. (in Russian)
11. Averina, T. Kondratiev Waves in the Economy of Belgium. Ekonomika. V. 3, I. 3, pр. 4–8. DOI: 10.12737/11575. (in Russian)
12. Basovskiy, L. Kondratiev Waves in the US Economy. Ekonomika. V. 3, I. 3, рp. 28–36. DOI: 10.12737/11580. (in Russian)
13. Levkina, N. The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics. Ekonomika. V. 3, I. 3, рp. 37–47. DOI: 10.12737/11581. (in Russian)
14. Basovskiy, L., Basovskaya, E.N. Productivity of Technological Waves in the USA Economy. Ekonomika. 2015. V. 3, I. 4, pр. 4–13. DOI 10.12737/ 12772. (in Russian)
