METHOD ACTIVATION END DATE IN THE PAST. DIRECTION:RE
Rubrics: STATE AND MUNICIPAL MANAGEMENT
Authors:
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 585
to 593
Status:
Published
Received:
11.12.2015
Accepted:
06.12.2017
Published:
29.12.2015
Subject area:
GRNTI 06.01 Общие вопросы экономических наук
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
dynamics of economic development, rate of economic
growth, factors of economic growth, the average annual growth
rate of GDP, the threshold value, the relative efficiency of new
technologies, scenarios of economic development.
Abstract (English):
The article considers and analyzes the dynamics of Russian economic development in the period from 2012 to 2022 under the influence of various factors, such as the share of wages in gross domestic product, the Russian export oil price, the population and the relative efficiency of new technologies. Exogenous variables have been identified through which it is possible to ensure a zero rate of economic growth. Threshold values of the growth rate of these factors have been defined. Conducted computational experiments permit to draw some conclusions about what factors and what values of their annual rate of increase are needed to implement the scenarios with positive economic growth, which improve the welfare of the country.
The article considers and analyzes the dynamics of Russian economic development in the period from 2012 to 2022 under the influence of various factors, such as the share of wages in gross domestic product, the Russian export oil price, the population and the relative efficiency of new technologies. Exogenous variables have been identified through which it is possible to ensure a zero rate of economic growth. Threshold values of the growth rate of these factors have been defined. Conducted computational experiments permit to draw some conclusions about what factors and what values of their annual rate of increase are needed to implement the scenarios with positive economic growth, which improve the welfare of the country.
Keywords:
dynamics of economic development, rate of economic growth, factors of economic growth, the average annual growth rate of GDP, the threshold value, the relative efficiency of new technologies, scenarios of economic development.
dynamics of economic development, rate of economic growth, factors of economic growth, the average annual growth rate of GDP, the threshold value, the relative efficiency of new technologies, scenarios of economic development.
текст
1. Dubovskiy S.V. Novye modeli investicionnyh i tehnologicheskih ciklov v ekonomike // Ekonomicheskiy rost i cikly. M.: VNIISI, 1991. Vyp. 12. S. 4–13.
2. Selezneva I.E. Kalibrovka ekonometricheskih uravneniy modeli ekonomiki Rossii// Vestnik ekonomicheskoy integracii. 2015. № 7-8. S. 19–46.
3. Dubovskiy S.V. Dinamika tehnologicheskoy struktury i ekonomicheskiy rost // Processy global'nogo razvitiya: modelirovanie i analiz. M.: VNIISI, 1984. Vyp. 3. S. 30–48.
