Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
The statistical analysis of annual floods (annual extremely high levels of floods) in the Amur River’s downstream for all period of instrumental observations from 1896 till 2016 has been carried out. It has been demonstrated, that the general totality of floods extreme levels has the first type of probability distribution for maximum values. Have been defined analytical expressions for probability distribution functions of levels’ general totalities for the period of intensive economic development of the Amur River basin (1961–2016), period of its small economic development (1896–1960), and for all period of water levels’ instrumental observations (1896–2016). Comparison of the Amur River basin’s small and intensive economic development periods has shown that at the intensive economic development risks of large-scale floods on the Amur River exceeding levels of 6.00 and 8.08 meters have decreased approximately two times, and these floods’ average recurrence intervals have increased approximately two times. Thus, intensive economic activity during the period from 1961 till 2016 has improved the flood situation on the Amur River. In addition, the intensive economic development of the Amur River basin has resulted in the most probable water level decrease by 0.5 meter.
hydrological phenomenon, floods, probability distribution function, goodness measure, risk of flood, time of mean return
1. Введение
Водный режим реки Амур и ее крупных притоков обладает рядом особенностей, среди которых основное место занимают часто повторяющиеся наводнения различной степени интенсивности [1].
1. Afanas’ev P. Yu. Kratkiy ocherk navodneniy v Priamur’e. Vzglyad istorika [A short sketch of floods in the Amur region. View of the historian]. Navodnenie‑2013 [Flood‑2013]. Talakan, RusGidro Publ., 2014, pp. 4–5. (in Russian).
2. Gartsman B. I. Dozhdevye navodneniya na rekakh yuga Dal’nego Vostoka: metody raschetov, prognozov, otsenok riska [Rain floods on the rivers of the south of the Far East: methods of calculations, forecasts, risk assessments]. Vladivostok, Dal’nauka Publ., 2008. 241 p. (in Russian).
3. Gartsman B. I. Sovremennoe sostoyanie i perspektivy metodov prognozirovaniya navodneniy [Current state and prospects of flood forecasting methods]. Navodnenie‑2013 [Flood‑2013]. Talakan, RusGidro Publ., 2014, pp. 79–86. (in Russian).
4. Kazachinskaya S. A., Pechkina E. A. Pavodki i navodneniya na yuge Dal’nego Vostoka kak sledstvie kharaktera klimata. Vzglyad meteorologa [Floods and floods in the south of the Far East as a consequence of the nature of the climate. Meteorologist’s view]. Navodnenie‑2013 [Flood‑2013]. Talakan, RusGidro Publ., 2014, pp. 17–32. (in Russian).
5. Makhinov A. N., Kim V. I., Voronov B. A. Navodnenie v basseyne Amura 2013 goda: prichiny i posledstviya [Flooding in the Amur River Basin in 2013: causes and consequences]. Vestnik Dal’nevostochnogo otdeleniya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2014, I. 2, pp. 5–14. (in Russian).
6. Danilov-Danil’yan V.I., Gel’fan A.N., Motovilov Yu.G., Kalugin A. S. Katastroficheskoe navodnenie 2013 goda v basseyne reki Amur: usloviya formirovaniya, otsenka povtoryaemosti, rezul’taty modelirovaniya [Catastrophic flooding in 2013 in the Amur River basin: formation conditions, frequency estimation, simulation results]. Vodnye resursy [Water resources]. 2014, I. 41(2), pp. 111–122. (in Russian).
7. Dugina I. O. Vydayushcheesya navodnenie na Amure 2013 goda i ego osobennosti. Vzglyad gidrologa [Outstanding flooding on the Cupid of 2013 and its features. The view of the hydrologist]. Navodnenie‑2013 [Flood‑2013]. Talakan, RusGidro Publ., 2014, pp. 41–57. (in Russian).
8. Shamov V.V, Gartsman B. I., Gubareva T. S., Makagonova M. A. Issledovaniya gidrologicheskikh posledstviy sovremennykh izmeneniy klimata v Dal’nevostochnom regione Rossii [Studies of the hydrological consequences of current climate change in the Far Eastern region of Russia]. Vestnik Dal’nevostochnogo otdeleniya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Far-Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2014, I. 2, pp. 15–23. (in Russian).
9. Bolgov M. V., Alekseevskiy N. I., Gartsman B. I., Dugina I. O., Kim V. I., Makhinov A. N., Shalygin A. L. Ekstremal’noe navodnenie v basseyne Amura v 2013 godu, analiz formirovaniya, otsenki i rekomendatsii [Extreme flooding in the Amur basin in 2013, analysis of the formation, evaluation and recommendations]. Geografiya i prirodnye resursy [Geography and natural resources]. 2015, I. 3, pp. 17–26. (in Russian).
10. My i Amurskie navodneniya: nevyuchennyy urok? [We and the Amur floods: unlearned lesson?]. Moscow, Vsemirnyy fond dikoy prirody (WWF) Publ., 2016. 216 p. (in Russian)
11. Fisher R., Tippett L. Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc., 1928. I. 24. P. 180–190.
12. Gnedenko B. V. Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d’une serie aleatoire. Ann. Math., 1943. I. 44, pp. 423–453.
13. Haan L. Sample extremes: an elementary introduction. Statist. Neerlandica, 1976. I. 30. P. 161–172.
14. Lidbetter M., Lindgren G., Rotsen Kh. Ekstremumy sluchaynykh posledovatel’nostey i protsessov [Extremes of random sequences and processes]. Moscow, Mir Publ., 1989. 392 p. (in Russian).
15. Gumbel’ E. Statistika ekstremal’nykh znacheniy [Statistics of extreme values]. Moscow, Mir Publ., 1965. 450 p. (in Russian).
16. Vadzinskiy R. N. Spravochnik po veroyatnostnym raspredeleniyam [Handbook of Probabilistic Distributions]. St. Petersburg, Nauka Publ., 2001. 295 p. (in Russian).
17. Pisarenko V. F., Bolgov M. V., Osipova N. V., Rukovishnikova T. A. Primenenie teorii ekstremal’nykh sobytiy v zadachakh approksimatsii raspredeleniy veroyatnostey maksimal’nykh raskhodov vody [Application of the theory of extreme events in problems of approximating the probability distributions of maximum water flow rates]. Vodnye resursy [Water resources]. 2002, V. 29, I. 6, pp. 645–657. (in Russian).
18. Gubareva T. S., Gartsman B. I. Otsenka parametrov raspredeleniy ekstremal’nykh gidrologicheskikh velichin metodom L-momentov [Estimation of the parameters of distributions of extreme hydrological quantities by the method of L-moments]. Vodnye resursy [Water resources]. 2010, V. 37, I. 4, pp. 1–10. (in Russian).
19. Gmurman V. E. Teoriya veroyatnostey i matematicheskaya statistika [Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics]. Moscow, Vysshaya shkola Publ., 1998. 479 p. (in Russian).
20. Kremer N. Sh. Teoriya veroyatnostey i matematicheskaya statistika: Uchebnik dlya studentov vuzov, obuchayushchikhsya po ekonomicheskim spetsial’nostyam [Theory of probability and mathematical statistics: A textbook for university students studying in economic specialties]. Moscow, YuNITI-DANA Publ., 2009. 551 p. (in Russian).
21. 2Ivchenko G. I., Medvedev Yu.I. Vvedenie v matematicheskuyu statistiku [Introduction to Mathematical Statistics]. Moscow, LKI Publ., 2017. 600 p. (in Russian).
22. Kobzar’ A. I. Prikladnaya matematicheskaya statistika. Dlya inzhenerov i nauchnykh rabotnikov [Applied mathematical statistics. For engineers and scientists]. Moscow, FIZMATLIT Publ., 2012. 816 p. (in Russian).
23. Bol’shev L.N., Smirnov N. V. Tablitsy matematicheskoy statistiki [Tables of mathematical statistics]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1983. 416 p. (in Russian).
24. Khaziakhmetov T. R. Zeyskaya i Bureyskaya GES v propuske anomal’nogo pavodka 2013 goda [HPP in the passage of the anomalous flood of 2013]. Navodnenie‑2013 [Flood‑2013]. Talakan, RusGidro Publ., 2014, pp. 59–68.
